Independent temperature records from around the world confirm that global temperatures are climbing. Ask NASA, ask NOAA, the UK’s Met Office, or the Japanese Meteorological Agency and they’ll tell you the same. Average surface temperatures around the world have increased by about 0.8°C (1.4°F) since 1880, when we began measuring. Nine of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2000.
Despite these facts, climate change deniers often claim that temperatures aren’t rising. We see this in a recent op-ed from the Chairman of the George C. Marshall Institute. (Yes, the same Marshall Institute that brought you denial of the dangers of smoking and the hole in the ozone layer.)
To see through the denier technique that underlies this claim, it’s important to understand the relationship between variation and trend. This animation of a man walking his dog helps to demonstrate that relationship. From minute-to-minute, the direction in which the dog’s heading varies. But by the end of the walk, a clear trend or path emerges.
Similarly, from year-to-year, annual global temperature varies. (Natural climate patterns like El Nino and La Nina contribute to this variation.) To see the overall warming trend through all the noise, you have to zoom out and look at the big picture.
It’s a textbook denier move to ignore the big picture and focus on an extremely brief “snapshot” of time instead. A graph that clearly shows the world is warming can be broken down into arbitrary chunks of time (decades, say) that show just the opposite.
This illustrated graph from Skeptical Science beautifully depicts how the “snapshot scam” works.
© 2012 skepticalscience.com cc by 3.0
In your efforts to “win the conversation” and spread the reality of the climate crisis, have you seen this tactic employed? Leave a comment and let us know.
Gabriel Mejias
February 29th
Excellent post. The animation is quite telling.
GRETCHEN HANSEN
February 29th
I will honestly say that I have seen this tactic used, but not in the sense of covering obvious climate change. I’ve seen this with the BP oil spill in the gulf. The immediate devastation it had on the wildlife and the enviroment. How badly it affected the lives of all who live and work in the area. The powers that be from BP were tripping over themselves playing the blame game, instead of taking responsibility. Once that game ended, they began the “clean-up” and the pay-off, which will never be enough. I dont believe that a price can be put on a life, especially when that life could very well be the end of that species. The pay-off was made, to help out human residents and workers, which was a no-brainer. But there was not, nor will there be, a pay-off for the wildlife and the emviroment that WAS affected; Not to mention the wildlife and the enviroment that has yet to suffer from this toxic spill. It doesn’t take a whole lot of effort to look at the big picture and see that the outcome will not be good. It saddens me and breaks my heart to know that GREED can be so influential in the distruction of our Mother Earth. I guess that’s why GREED Is one of the 7 DEADLY SINS. I will continue to pray and speak my mind, with the hope that it will make a difference. Thank you for letting me share. Peace
Eduardo Cao
March 1st
I wonder if they think they can pray their way out of the changes to the planet?
Jeanie Johnson
March 13th
It is early March in southern Wisconsin. With the exception of 10 years away I have lived in this area all my life. I am 63. I am not a scientist but I know my bio-home by feel, look and climate. After several winters of record snowfall, we have just come through a nearly dry winter with record, unseasonal warmth. In mid-January I saw blooming pussy willow bushes. Robins have arrived at the beginning of March. We are in the rising 70s and have a 90-degree day predicted for a week from now. This is not the weather of my home. I can feel it, things are changing rapidly. I have a climate denier relative and all these things are chalked up to whatever du jour comment he picked off right-wing radio. Denial sounded like this when I mentioned the blooming pussy willow bushes in January. “Well, do you know every single pussy willow bush in Wisconsin? I think nature knows what to do.” I’ll stick to my eyes, the feel of the air, the sightings of things that should not be and my intuition. Thanks for the science, that backs up all my own feelings. The climate denier relative? As he said last year when we were sweltering here, “Just set to bake.”