Four Fights to Watch at COP 29 

It’s hard to imagine a bleaker week for global climate efforts. The world’s largest economy just elected a president vowing to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement (again). Germany – long a leader in clean energy – has seen its government collapse, with snap elections looming and the future of its climate commitments in question. The list of global leaders skipping the talks seems to grow longer by the hour. On NGO listservs, pleas for extra credentials to attend and leads on the few hotels available have given way to offers for both. 

And yet, three things remain as true today as they were on November 4. First, global emissions continue to head in the wrong direction, putting the world on track for catastrophic warming of as much as 3.1 degrees Celsius this century. Warming at this level guarantees, in the words of the UN, “a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.” 

Second, the COP process, for all its imperfections, remains the one game in town when it comes to changing course. Yes, national action plans to date are set to achieve only modest emissions cuts and according to the UN, “fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.” But COP 29 and especially next year’s COP 30 summit in Brazil are a chance to raise the planet’s collective ambition and change course. 

Third – and critically –clean energy keeps getting cheaper and cheaper. A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, notes that the levelized cost of electricity from solar PV was a staggering 56% less than the weighted average of power from oil, coal, and gas in 2023. Wind was even cheaper, costing 67% less than the same weighted average. The result of these falling prices, per the IEA, is that, “Renewable power generation has become the default source of least-cost new power generation.” 

If you're dismayed by the current direction of climate action, take heart in the fact that these cost trends are poised to reshape the world far more than the next White House with impacts extending far beyond four years. 

Why? Because climate action is – in no small part – a numbers game. Few countries are confused about what climate change means for their future. The question has always been can they afford to either shift from the fossil fuel power heating the planet to clean energy alternatives or – for developing nations in the Global South especially – simply leapfrog the dirty energy stage of development and skip coal, oil, and gas almost altogether. With renewables offering cheaper electricity than fossil alternatives for some 86% of new projects in 2022, the answer is increasingly “Yes.” 

The question now is if leaders heading to Baku can build on this trend in the absence of the world’s biggest economy and make progress in four key areas.  

1. Accelerate action this decade to phase out fossil fuels. 

Last year’s COP 28 summit in Dubai ended with a call for countries to transition away from fossil fuels in their energy systems. Crucially, countries also agreed to accelerate the transition during this critical decade. Unfortunately, the same agreement came with loopholes for continued fossil fuel use big enough to sail a coal barge through.  

The good news: More than 100 nations at all stages of economic development called for an even stronger commitment. At COP 29, countries need to make good on the promise and start setting a timeline for phasing out the fossil fuels changing our climate. 

2. Ambitious national climate action plans to keep warming as close to 1.5 degrees as possible. 

The science on global warming is crystal clear: Every fraction of a degree matters.  

With the expected US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the accord’s 1.5 degree goal may be slipping out of reach, but that only adds to the urgency for other nations to increase the ambition of their own climate action plans to hold warming to as close to that goal as possible.  

3. A global finance goal to support just transition worldwide. 

One of the key issues at COP 29 will be a new finance goal sufficient to accelerate a just transition away from fossil fuels and address developing country needs and priorities. While developed countries should take the lead, large financially capable and highly polluting developing countries should also contribute. 

The success of this goal hinges in no small part on mobilizing finance from a wide variety of sources, instruments, and channels. This means contributions from public sources but also through reforming the World Bank and other multi-development institutions to shift finance from fossil fuels to climate projects. Equally critical will be incentivizing private finance. Countries should also engage in new and ongoing efforts around international revenue streams, including taxes on the fossil fuel industry, shifting subsidies, and closing wasteful loopholes, among others. 

4. Make the COP process fit for purpose. 

With or without the US, the world cannot meet the Paris Agreement’s goals if the COP and other key UN processes around it cannot to meet the moment. The UN’s climate body, the UNFCCC, and COP must both finally be made fit for purpose, with the resources and policies to achieve their stated goals. Rampant conflicts of interest and action by a few petrostates to water down the larger community’s ambition have highlighted the need for institutional strengthening.  

Among other areas for reform, countries should explore conflict-of-interest policies, better and transparent decision-making, and more meaningful participation of civil society – especially underrepresented groups such as youth and Indigenous peoples. The COP has already called upon multilateral financial institutions to reform - now it’s time to do the same. 

Advocates and leaders from Climate Reality’s 11 global branches will be in Baku to call for progress on these four issues. To follow their progress and see what’s happening at COP 29, visit our special web feature: On the Ground at COP 29.